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Risk is the potential of gaining or losing something of value. Risk can also be defined as the intentional interaction with uncertainty.

Risk perception is the subjective judgment people make about the severity and probability of a risk, and may vary person to person. Any human endeavor carries some risk, but some are much riskier than others. The Oxford English Dictionary cites the earliest use of the word in English in the spelling of risque from its from French original, 'risque' as ofand the spelling as risk from It defines risk as:.

Exposure to the possibility of loss, injury, or other adverse or unwelcome circumstance; a chance or situation involving such a possibility. In this definition, uncertainties include events which may or may not happen and uncertainties caused by ambiguity or a lack of information. It also includes both negative and positive impacts on objectives. Many definitions of risk exist in common usage, however this definition was developed by an international committee representing over 30 countries and is based on the input of several thousand subject matter experts.

Very different approaches to risk management are taken in different fields, e. Risk is ubiquitous in all areas of life and risk management is something that we all must do, whether we are managing a major organization or simply crossing the road.

When describing risk however, it is convenient to consider that risk practitioners operate in some specific practice areas. Economic risks can be manifested in lower incomes or higher expenditures than expected. The causes can be many, for instance, the hike in the price for raw materials, the lapsing of deadlines for construction of a new operating facility, disruptions in a production process, emergence of a serious competitor on the market, the loss of key personnel, the change of a political regime, or natural disasters.

Risks in personal health may be reduced by primary prevention actions that decrease early causes of illness or by secondary prevention actions after a person has clearly measured clinical signs or symptoms recognized as risk factors.

Tertiary prevention reduces the negative impact of an already established disease by restoring function and reducing disease-related complications. Ethical medical practice requires careful discussion of risk factors with individual patients to obtain informed consent for secondary and tertiary prevention efforts, whereas public health efforts in primary prevention require education of the entire population at risk.

In each case, careful communication about risk factors, likely outcomes and certainty must distinguish between causal events that must be decreased and associated events that may be merely consequences rather than causes. In epidemiology, the lifetime risk of an effect is the cumulative incidencealso called incidence proportion over an entire lifetime.

Health, safety, and environment HSE are separate practice areas; however, they are often linked. The reason for this is typically to do with organizational management structures; however, there are strong links among these disciplines. One of the strongest links between these is that a single risk event may have impacts in all three areas, albeit over differing timescales.

For example, the uncontrolled release of radiation or a toxic chemical may have immediate short-term safety consequences, more protracted health impacts, and much longer-term environmental impacts.

Events such as Chernobyl, for example, caused immediate deaths, and in the longer term, deaths from cancers, and left a lasting environmental impact leading to birth defects, impacts on wildlife, etc. Over time, a form of risk analysis called environmental risk analysis has developed.

Environmental risk analysis is a field of study that attempts to understand events and activities that bring risk to human health or the environment. Human health and environmental risk is the likelihood of an adverse outcome See adverse outcome pathway. As such, risk is a function of hazard and exposure. Hazard is the intrinsic danger or harm that is posed, e. Exposure is the likely contact with that hazard. Therefore, the risk of even a very hazardous substance approaches zero as the exposure nears zero, given a person's or other organism's biological makeup, activities and location See exposome.

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Individual risk perception and risk taking can also be influenced by social factors. A study using representative household data in the US, Italy and Austria finds evidence that risk taking levels can be influenced by the immediate social environment and by the welfare regime of a state i.

The study also finds that these factors can interact. Information technology riskor IT riskIT-related riskis a risk related to information technology. This relatively new term was developed as a result of an increasing awareness that information security is simply one facet of a multitude of risks that are relevant to IT and the real world processes it supports.

The increasing dependencies of modern society on information and computers networks both in private and public sectors, including military [16] [17] [18] has led to new terms like IT risk and Cyberwarfare. Information security means protecting information and information systems from unauthorized access, use, disclosure, disruption, modification, perusal, inspection, recording or destruction.

Information security has grown to information assurance IA i. While focused dominantly on information in digital form, the full range of IA encompasses not only digital but also analog or physical form. Information assurance is interdisciplinary and draws from multiple fields, including accountingfraud examination, forensic sciencemanagement sciencesystems engineeringsecurity engineeringand criminologyin addition to computer science. So, IT risk is narrowly focused on computer security, while information security extends to risks related to other forms of information paper, microfilm.

Information assurance risks include the ones related to the consistency of the business information stored in IT systems and the information stored by other means and the relevant business consequences. Insurance is a risk treatment option which involves risk sharing. It can be considered as a form of contingent capital and is akin to purchasing an option in which the buyer pays a small premium to be protected from a potential large loss.

Insurance risk is often taken by insurance companies, who then bear a pool of risks including market risk, credit risk, operational risk, interest rate risk, mortality risk, longevity risks, etc. Means of assessing risk vary widely between professions. Indeed, they may define these professions; for example, a doctor manages medical risk, while a civil engineer manages risk of structural failure.

A professional code of ethics is usually focused on risk assessment and mitigation by the professional on behalf of client, public, society or life in general.

In the workplace, incidental and inherent risks exist. Incidental risks are those that occur naturally in the business but are not part of the core of the business. Inherent risks have a negative effect on the operating profit of the business. The experience of many people who rely on human services for support is that 'risk' is often used as a reason to prevent them from gaining further independence or fully accessing the community, and that these services are often unnecessarily risk averse.

A high reliability organization HRO is an organization that has succeeded in avoiding catastrophes in an environment where normal accidents can be expected due to risk factors and complexity.

Most studies of HROs involve areas such as nuclear aircraft carriers, air traffic control, aerospace and nuclear power stations. Organizations such as these share in common the ability to consistently operate safely in complex, interconnected environments where a single failure in one component could lead to catastrophe.

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Essentially, they are organizations which appear to operate 'in spite' of an enormous range of risks. Some of these industries manage risk in a highly quantified and enumerated way. These include the nuclear power and aircraft industrieswhere the possible failure of a complex series of engineered systems could result in highly undesirable outcomes. The usual measure of risk for a class of events is then: The total risk is then the sum of the individual class-risks; see below.

In the nuclear industry, consequence is often measured in terms of off-site radiological release, and this is often banded into five or six decade-wide bands.

Where these risks are low, they are normally considered to be "broadly acceptable". A higher level of risk typically up to 10 to times what is considered broadly acceptable has to be justified against the costs of reducing it further and the possible benefits that make it tolerable—these risks are described as "Tolerable if ALARP ". Risks beyond this level are classified as "intolerable". The level of risk deemed broadly acceptable has been considered by regulatory bodies in various countries—an early attempt by UK government regulator and academic F.

Farmer used the example of hill-walking and similar activities, which have definable risks that people appear to find acceptable. This resulted in the so-called Farmer Curve of acceptable probability of an event versus its consequence. The technique as a whole is usually referred to as probabilistic risk assessment PRA or probabilistic safety assessment, PSA.

See WASH for an example of this approach. In financerisk is the chance that the return achieved on an investment will be different from that expected, and also takes into account the size of the difference.

This includes the possibility of losing some or all of the original investment. In a view advocated by Damodaran, risk includes not only " downside risk " but also "upside risk" returns that exceed expectations. Financial risk may be market-dependent, determined by numerous market factors, or operational, resulting from fraudulent behavior e. Recent studies suggest that endocrine levels may play a role in risk-taking in financial decision-making.

A fundamental idea in finance is the relationship between risk and return see modern portfolio theory. The greater the potential return one might seek, the greater the risk that one generally assumes.

A free market reflects this principle in the pricing of an instrument: For example, a US Treasury bond is considered to be one of the safest investments. In comparison to an investment or speculative grade corporate bond, US Treasury notes and bonds yield lower rates of return.

The reason for this is that a corporation is more likely to default on debt than the U. Because the risk of investing in a corporate bond is higher, investors are offered a correspondingly higher rate of return. A popular risk measure is value-at-risk VaR. There are different types of VaR: The latter is used in measuring risk during the extreme market stress conditions. In Novak [28] "risk is a possibility of an undesirable event".

In financial markets, one may need to measure credit riskinformation make money from sexting uk and source risk, probability model risk, operational risk and legal risk if there are regulatory or civil actions taken as a result of " investor's regret ".

With the advent of automation in financial markets, the concept of "real-time risk" has gained a lot of attention. Aldridge and Krawciw [29] define real-time risk as the probability of instantaneous or near-instantaneous loss, and can be due to flash crashes, other market crises, malicious activity by selected market participants and other events. Regulators have taken notice of real-time risk as well. Basel III [31] requires real-time risk management framework for bank stability.

Some people may be " risk seeking ", i. Such an individual willingly pays a premium to assume risk e. The financial audit risk model expresses the risk of an auditor providing an inappropriate opinion or material misstatement of a commercial entity's financial statements.

It can be analytically expressed as. As defined, audit risk does not consider the impact of an auditor misstatement and so is financial get stock quotes markets news ftse 100 index as a simple probability. The impact of misstatement must be considered when determining an acceptable audit risk. Security risk management involves protection of assets from harm caused by deliberate acts.

A the stock shop downham market detailed definition is: Compromise of organizational assets may adversely affect the enterprise, its business units and their clients.

As such, consideration of security risk is a vital component of risk management. One of the growing areas of focus in risk management is the field of human factors where behavioral and organizational psychology underpin our understanding of risk based decision making.

This field considers questions such as "how do we make risk based universal stock brokers private limited In decision theoryregret and anticipation of regret can play a significant part in decision-making, distinct from risk aversion [34] preferring the status quo in case one becomes worse off.

Framing [35] is a fundamental problem with all forms of risk assessment. In particular, because of bounded rationality our brains get overloaded, so we take mental shortcutsthe risk of extreme events is discounted because the probability is too low to evaluate intuitively. As an example, one of the leading causes of death is road accidents caused by drunk driving — partly because any given driver frames the problem by largely or totally ignoring the risk of a serious or fatal accident. For instance, an extremely disturbing event an attack by hijacking, or moral hazards may be ignored in analysis despite the fact it has occurred and has a nonzero probability.

Or, an event that everyone agrees is inevitable may be ruled out of analysis due to greed or an unwillingness to admit that it is believed to be inevitable. These human tendencies for error and wishful thinking often affect even the most rigorous applications of the scientific method and are a major concern of the philosophy of science.

All decision-making under uncertainty must consider cognitive biascultural biasand notational bias: No group forexpros brent crude advanced chart people assessing risk is immune to " groupthink ": Framing involves other information that affects the outcome of a risky decision.

The right prefrontal cortex has been shown to take a more global perspective [36] while greater left prefrontal activity relates to local or focal processing. From the Theory of Leaky Modules [38] McElroy and Seta proposed that they could predictably alter the framing effect by the selective manipulation of regional prefrontal activity with finger tapping or monaural listening.

Rightward tapping or listening had the effect of narrowing attention such that the frame was ignored. This is a practical way of manipulating regional cortical activation to affect risky decisions, especially because directed tapping or listening is easily done. A growing area of research has been to examine various psychological aspects of risk taking. Researchers typically run randomized experiments with a treatment and control group to ascertain the effect of different psychological factors that may be associated with risk taking.

Thus, positive and negative feedback about past risk taking can affect future risk taking. In an experiment, people who were led to believe they are very competent at decision making saw more opportunities in a risky choice and took more risks, while those led to believe they were not very competent saw more threats and took fewer risks. The concept of risk-based maintenance is an advanced form of Reliability centered maintenance. In case of chemical industries, apart from probability of failure, consequences of failure is also very important.

Therefore, the selection of maintenance policies should be based on risk, instead of reliability. Risk-based maintenance methodology acts as a tool for maintenance planning and decision making to reduce the probability of failure and its consequences.

In risk-based maintenance decision making, the maintenance resources can be utilized optimally based on the risk class high, medium, or low of equipment or machines, to achieve tolerable risk criteria. Since risk assessment and management is essential in security management, both are tightly related.

Security assessment methodologies like CRAMM contain risk assessment modules as an important part of the first steps of the methodology. On the other hand, risk assessment methodologies like Mehari evolved to become security assessment methodologies.

An ISO standard on risk management Principles and guidelines on implementation was published under code ISO on 13 777 binary options brokers in the us citizenship Often the probability of a negative event is estimated by using the frequency of past similar events.

Probabilities for rare failures may be difficult to estimate. This makes risk assessment difficult in hazardous industries, for example nuclear energy, where the frequency of failures is rare, while harmful consequences of failure are severe.

Statistical methods may chillicothe livestock auction require the typing work at home offline of a cost functionwhich in turn may require the calculation of the cost of loss of a human life.

This is a difficult problem. One approach is to ask what people are willing to pay to insure against death [42] or radiological release e. GBq of radio-iodine[ citation needed ] but as the answers depend very strongly on the circumstances it is not clear that this approach is effective. Risk is often measured as the expected value of an undesirable outcome. This combines the probabilities of various possible stock options margin calculator and some assessment of the corresponding harm into a single value.

See also Expected utility. The simplest case is a binary possibility of Accident or No accident. The associated formula for calculating risk is then:. For example, if performing activity X has a probability of 0. Situations are sometimes more complex than the simple binary possibility case. In a situation with several possible accidents, total risk is the sum of the risks for each different accident, provided that the outcomes are comparable:.

One of the first major uses of this concept was for the planning of the Binary option insurance strategy and third party monitoring Works ina flood protection program in the Netherlandswith the aid of the mathematician David van Dantzig. In statistical decision theory, the risk function is defined as the expected value of a given loss function as a function of the decision rule used to make decisions in the face of uncertainty.

People may rely on their fear and hesitation to keep them out of the most profoundly unknown circumstances. Fear is a response to perceived danger. Risk could be said ukrainian stock market index be the way we collectively measure and share this "true fear"—a fusion of rational doubt, irrational fear, and a set of unquantified biases from our own experience. The field of behavioral finance focuses on human risk-aversion, asymmetric regret, and other ways that human financial behavior varies from what analysts call "rational".

Risk in that case is the degree of uncertainty associated with a return on an asset. Recognizing and respecting the irrational influences on human decision making may do much to reduce disasters caused by naive risk assessments that presume rationality but in fact merely fuse many shared biases.

According to one set of definitions, fear is a fleeting emotion ascribed to a particular object, while anxiety is a trait of fear this is referring to "trait anxiety", as distinct from how the term "anxiety" is generally used that lasts longer and is not attributed to a specific stimulus these particular definitions are not used by all authors cited on this page.

Positive emotions, such as happiness, are believed to have more optimistic risk assessments and negative emotions, such as anger, have pessimistic risk assessments. As an emotion with a negative valence, fear, and therefore anxiety, has long been associated with negative risk perceptions.

Under the more recent appraisal tendency framework of Jennifer Lerner et al. Psychologists have demonstrated that increases in anxiety and increases in risk perception are related and people who are habituated clickbank autopilot money making software anxiety experience this awareness of risk more intensely than normal individuals.

This is referred to as affect-as-information according to Clore, However, the accuracy of these risk perceptions when making choices is not known. Experimental studies show that brief surges in anxiety are correlated with surges in general risk perception. This notion is supported by an experiment that engages physicians in a simulated perilous surgical procedure.

It was demonstrated that a measurable amount of the participants' anxiety about patient outcomes was related to previous experimentally created regret and worry and ultimately caused the physicians to be led by their feelings over any information or guidelines provided during the mock surgery.

Additionally, their emotional levels, adjusted along with the simulated patient status, suggest that anxiety level and currency exchange rate mxn usd respective decision made are correlated with the type of bad outcome that was experienced in the earlier part of the experiment.

When experiencing anxiety, individuals draw from personal judgments referred to as pessimistic outcome appraisals. These 60 second binary options system day trading brokers promote biases for risk avoidance and promote risk tolerance in decision-making. It is common for people to dread some risks but not others: They tend to be very afraid of epidemic diseases, nuclear power plant failures, and plane accidents but are relatively unconcerned about some highly frequent and deadly events, such as traffic crashes, household accidents, and medical errors.

One key distinction of dreadful risks seems to be their potential for catastrophic consequences, [51] threatening to kill a large number of people within a short period of time. Different hypotheses have been proposed to explain why people fear dread risks. First, the psychometric paradigm [51] suggests that high lack of control, high catastrophic potential, and severe consequences account for the increased risk perception and anxiety associated with dread risks.

Second, because people estimate the frequency of a risk by recalling instances of its occurrence from their social circle or the media, they may overvalue relatively rare but dramatic risks because of their overpresence and undervalue frequent, less dramatic risks.

Fourth, fearing dread risks can be an ecologically rational strategy. Accordingly, people are more concerned about risks killing younger, and hence more fertile, groups. The relationship between higher levels of risk perception and "judgmental accuracy" in anxious individuals remains unclear Joseph I.

There is a chance that "judgmental accuracy" is correlated with heightened anxiety. In his seminal work Risk, Uncertainty, and ProfitFrank Knight established the distinction between risk and uncertainty.

Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of Risk, from which it has never been properly separated.

The term "risk," as loosely used in everyday speech and in economic discussion, really covers two things which, functionally at least, in their causal relations to the phenomena of economic organization, are categorically different. The essential fact is that "risk" means in some cases a quantity susceptible of measurement, while at other times it is something distinctly not of this character; and there are far-reaching and crucial differences in the bearings of the phenomenon depending on which of the two is really present and operating.

It will appear that a measurable uncertainty, or "risk" proper, as we shall use the term, is so far different from an unmeasurable one that it is not in effect an uncertainty at all. Thus, Knightian uncertainty is immeasurable, not possible to calculate, while in the Knightian sense risk is measurable. Another distinction between risk and uncertainty is proposed by Douglas Hubbard: In this sense, one may have uncertainty without risk but not risk without uncertainty.

We can be uncertain about the winner of a contest, but unless we have some personal stake in it, we have no risk. If we bet money on the outcome of the contest, then we have a risk.

In both cases there are more than one outcome. The measure of uncertainty refers only to the probabilities assigned to outcomes, while the measure of risk requires both probabilities for outcomes and losses quantified for outcomes. The terms risk attitudeappetiteand tolerance are often used similarly to describe an organization's or individual's attitude towards risk-taking. One's attitude may be described as risk-averserisk-neutralor risk-seeking.

There can still be deviations that are within a risk appetite. For example, recent research finds that insured individuals are significantly likely to divest from risky asset holdings in response to a decline in health, controlling for variables such as income, age, and out-of-pocket medical expenses. Gambling is a risk-increasing investment, wherein money on hand is risked for a possible large return, but with the possibility of losing it all.

Purchasing a lottery ticket is a very risky investment with a high chance of no return and a small chance of a very high return. In contrast, putting money in a bank at a defined rate of interest is a risk-averse action that gives a guaranteed return of a small gain and precludes other investments with possibly higher gain.

The possibility of getting no return on an investment is also known as the rate of ruin. Hubbard also argues that defining risk as the product of impact and probability presumes, unrealistically, that decision-makers are risk-neutral. However, most decision-makers are not actually risk-neutral and would not consider these equivalent choices. This gave rise to prospect theory and cumulative prospect theory.

Hubbard proposes to instead describe risk as a vector quantity that distinguishes the probability and magnitude of a risk. Risks are simply described as a set or function [ vague ] of possible payoffs gains or losses with their associated probabilities.

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This array is collapsed into a scalar value according to a decision-maker's risk tolerance. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. For other uses, see Risk disambiguation. Information assurance and Information security.

Decision theory and Prospect theory. Risk assessment and Operational risk management. IOSR Journal of Business and Management.

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